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☆ The Fed Is Looking for a Job Market Cool-Down. It Just Got One.
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-03 | by ( Jeanna Smialek | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

Federal Reserve officials have been looking for further evidence that their interest rate increases over the past two years are weighing on the economy and job market, and Friday’s employment report roundly provided that signal. That moderation came as job gains slowed, the unemployment rate ticked up slightly and average weekly hours nudged down. The overall picture was one of a labor market that remains solid but is gradually slowing — exactly what officials at the Fed have been looking for. Central bankers generally embrace a strong job market: One of their two mandates from Congress is to foster maximum employment. But when inflation is rapid, like it has been since 2021, officials worry that a hot labor market could help to keep price gains elevated.

Organizations: Federal

☆ The Fed Just Got the Job Market Cooling It Has Been Waiting For
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-03 | by ( Jeanna Smialek | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

Federal Reserve officials are keeping a close eye on the job market as they contemplate when and whether they can cut interest rates this year. That was both cooler than the previous reading and slightly cooler than the 4 percent economists had forecast. The overall picture was one of a labor market that remains solid but is gradually slowing — exactly what officials at the Fed have been looking for. Central bankers generally embrace a strong job market: One of their two mandates from Congress is to foster maximum employment. But when inflation is rapid, as it has been since 2021, officials worry that a hot labor market could help to keep price gains elevated.

Organizations: Federal

☆ The Fed Is Eyeing the Job Market, but It’s Difficult to Read
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-02 | by ( Jeanna Smialek | More About Jeanna Smialek | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

That leaves economists turning to other indicators to evaluate the strength of the job market and to forecast its forward momentum. Job openings have been coming down, the unemployment rate has ticked up recently (particularly for Black workers) and hiring expectations in business surveys have wobbled. The takeaway is that this seems to be a strong job market, but exactly how strong is hard to know. If job gains were to slow, would that be a sign that the economy was beginning to buckle, or just evidence that employers had finally sated their demand for new hires? If job gains were to stay strong, would that be a sign that things were overheating, or evidence that labor supply was still expanding?

☆ What to Watch as the Fed Makes Its Interest Rate Decision
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-01 | by ( Jeanna Smialek | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

On the one hand, officials could stick with their recent script: Their next policy move is likely to be an interest rate reduction, but incoming inflation and growth data will determine how soon reductions can begin and how extensive they will be. Policymakers believe that they need to use interest rates to tap the brakes on demand and bring inflation fully under control. The Fed will release its policy decision in a statement at 2 p.m. Eastern. But investors are likely to focus most intently on a news conference scheduled for 2:30 p.m. with Jerome H. Powell, the Fed chair. Central bankers will not release quarterly economic projections at this gathering — the next set is scheduled for release after the Fed’s June 11-12 meeting.

Persons: Jerome H, Powell Organizations: Federal

☆ Fed Holds Rates Steady, Noting Lack of Progress on Inflation
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-01 | by ( Jeanna Smialek | More About Jeanna Smialek | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

Federal Reserve officials left interest rates unchanged and signaled that they are wary about how stubborn inflation is proving, paving the way for a longer period of high interest rates. The Fed held borrowing costs steady at 5.33 percent on Wednesday, leaving them at a more than two-decade high where they have been set since July. Central bankers reiterated that they need “greater confidence” that inflation is coming down before reducing rates. “Readings on inflation have come in above expectations,” Jerome H. Powell, the Fed chair, said at a news conference following the release of the central bank’s rate decision. After months of rapid cooling, inflation has proved surprisingly sticky in early 2024.

Persons: ” Jerome H, Powell Organizations: Federal Reserve, Fed

☆ Here's what matters most to the Fed when it comes to policy decisions
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-01 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailHere's what matters most to the Fed when it comes to policy decisionsJeanna Smialek, Federal Reserve and Economy Reporter at The New York Times, and Steve Odland, President and CEO of the Conference Board, discuss the upcoming Fed decision.

Persons: Jeanna Smialek, Steve Odland Organizations: Federal Reserve, The New York Times, Conference Board

☆ The Fed Tries to Steer Clear of Politics, But Election Year Is Making It Tough
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-01 | by ( Jeanna Smialek | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

Federal Reserve officials are fiercely protective of their separation from politics, but the presidential election is putting the institution on a crash course with partisan wrangling. Fed officials set policy independently of the White House, meaning that while presidents can push for lower interest rates, they cannot force central bankers to cut borrowing costs. Incumbent politicians generally want low interest rates, which help to stoke economic growth by making borrowing cheap. But the Fed uses higher interest rates to keep inflation slow and steady — and if politicians forced to keep rates low and goose the economy all the time, it could allow those price increases to rocket out of control. Pressuring officials for lower rates was unlikely to help, administrations reasoned, and could actually backfire by prodding policymakers to keep rates higher for longer to prove that they were independent from the White House.

Organizations: Federal, White

☆ High Fed Rates Are Not Crushing Growth. Wealthier People Help Explain Why.
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-30 | by ( Jeanna Smialek | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

More than two years after the Federal Reserve started lifting interest rates to restrain growth and weigh on inflation, businesses continue to hire, consumers continue to spend and policymakers are questioning why their increases haven’t had a more aggressive bite. The answer probably lies in part in a simple reality: High interest rates are not really pinching Americans who own assets like houses and stocks as much as many economists might have expected. Some people are feeling the squeeze of Fed policy. Credit card rates have skyrocketed, and rising delinquencies on auto loans suggest that people with lower incomes are struggling under their weight. Their house values are mostly holding up in spite of higher rates, stock indexes are hovering near record highs, and they can make meaningful interest on their savings for the first time in decades.

Persons: haven’t Organizations: Federal Reserve

☆ The Fed’s Favorite Inflation Index Remained Stubborn in March
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-26 | by ( Jeanna Smialek | More About Jeanna Smialek | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: 1 min

The Federal Reserve’s most closely watched inflation measure remained stubborn in March, the latest evidence that price increases are not fading as quickly as policymakers would like, and another reason that interest rates may stay higher for longer. Investors came into 2024 hopeful that Fed officials would cut rates substantially this year, but those hopes have been fading as inflation has shown much more staying power than expected. Wall Street increasingly sees lower rates coming much later in the year, if the Fed manages to cut them at all. The latest Personal Consumption Expenditures index reading could keep the Fed on a cautious path as it considers when to lower borrowing costs. The overall inflation index rose by 2.7 percent in the year through March, up from 2.5 percent in February and slightly more than economists had expected.

Organizations: Fed

☆ Bets on Rate Cuts This Year Are Fading Away
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-26 | by ( Jeanna Smialek | More About Jeanna Smialek | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

At the start of 2024, investors expected the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates substantially this year as inflation cooled. Investors and economists are questioning when and how much Fed policymakers will manage to cut rates — and some are increasingly dubious that Fed officials will manage to lower them at all this year. Inflation’s stickiness has prompted Fed officials to signal that it may take longer to reduce interest rates than they had previously expected. Policymakers raised interest rates to 5.33 percent between March 2022 and last summer, and have held them there since. Investors who came into the year expecting a first rate cut by March have pushed back those expectations to September or later.

Persons: Inflation’s stickiness Organizations: Federal Reserve, Investors

☆ Immigrants in Maine Are Filling a Labor Gap. It May Be a Prelude for the U.S.
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-12 | by ( Jeanna Smialek | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

Maine has a lot of lobsters. It also has a lot of older people, ones who are less and less willing and able to catch, clean and sell the crustaceans that make up a $1 billion industry for the state. Companies are turning to foreign-born workers to bridge the divide. As America overall ages, the state offers a preview of what that could look like economically — and the critical role that immigrants are likely to play in filling the labor market holes that will be created as native-born workers retire. Nationally, immigration is expected to become an increasingly critical source of new workers and economic vibrancy in the coming decades.

Persons: ”, Ben Conniff Organizations: Companies Locations: Maine, ” Maine

☆ Soft Landing or No Landing? Fed’s Economic Picture Gets Complicated.
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-11 | by ( Jeanna Smialek | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

America seemed headed for an economic fairy-tale ending in late 2023. The painfully rapid inflation that had kicked off in 2021 appeared to be cooling in earnest, and economic growth had begun to gradually moderate after a series of Federal Reserve interest rate increases. Rather than settling down, the economy appears to be booming as prices continue to climb more quickly than usual. Inflation is nowhere near as high as it was at its peak in 2022, wages are climbing and jobs are plentiful. Policymakers raised interest rates sharply in 2022 and 2023, pushing them to a two-decade high in an attempt to weigh on growth and inflation.

Organizations: Federal, Federal Reserve

☆ Live Updates: Inflation Expected to Remain Stubborn
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-10 | by ( Jeanna Smialek | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +4 min

Policymakers have made it clear that they want to see further evidence that inflation is cooling before they cut interest rates. But Fed officials do not want to cut rates before they are confident that inflation is on track to return to normal. That threat of lingering inflation has become a more serious concern for policymakers since the start of the year. Inflation has flatlined in recent months after months of steady declines, raising some alarm at the Fed and among forecasters. Going into the year, investors expected the Fed to cut rates sharply in 2024 — to about 4 percent — but have dialed back those expectations.

Persons: Goldman Sachs, Laura Rosner, Warburton, it’s, you’ve, ” Organizations: Federal, Fed, Goldman, Deutsche Bank Locations: Central

☆ Inflation Was Quicker Than Expected in March, Unwelcome News for the Fed
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-10 | by ( Jeanna Smialek | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

A closely watched measure of inflation remained stronger than expected in March, worrying news for Federal Reserve officials who have become increasingly concerned that their progress on lowering price increases might be stalling. The surprisingly stubborn inflation reading raised doubts among economists about when — and even whether — the Fed will be able to start cutting interest rates this year. The Consumer Price Index climbed 3.8 percent on an annual basis after stripping out food and fuel prices, which economists do in order to get a better sense of the underlying inflation trend. That “core” index was stronger than the 3.7 percent increase economists had expected, and unchanged from 3.8 percent in February. Counting in food and fuel, the inflation measure climbed 3.5 percent in March from a year earlier, up from 3.2 percent in February and faster than what economists have anticipated.

Organizations: Federal Reserve

☆ Higher for Longer After All? Investors See Fed Rates Falling More Slowly.
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-09 | by ( Jeanna Smialek | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

Investors were betting big on Federal Reserve rate cuts at the start of 2024, wagering that central bankers would lower interest rates to around 4 percent by the end of the year. But after months of stubborn inflation and strong economic growth, the outlook is starting to look much less dramatic. Market pricing now suggests that rates will end the year in the neighborhood of 4.75 percent. That would mean Fed officials had cut rates two or three times from their current 5.3 percent. Central bankers do not want to risk tanking the job market and causing a recession by keeping interest rates too high for too long.

Organizations: Federal

☆ New Questions on How a Key Agency Shared Inflation Data
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-05 | by ( Ben Casselman | Jeanna Smialek | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

The Bureau of Labor Statistics shared more information about inflation with Wall Street “super users” than previously disclosed, emails from the agency show. The revelation is likely to prompt further scrutiny of the way the government shares economic data at a time when such information keenly interests investors. An economist at the agency set off a firestorm in February when he sent an email to a group of data users explaining how a methodological tweak could have contributed to an unexpected jump in housing costs in the Consumer Price Index the previous month. The email, addressed to “Super Users,” circulated rapidly around Wall Street, where every detail of inflation data can affect the bond market. And they suggest that there was a list of super users, contrary to the agency’s denials.

Persons: ”, — Organizations: Labor Statistics, of Labor Statistics Locations: Wall

☆ Fed Chair Awaits More Inflation Cooling as Path Proves ‘Bumpy’
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-03 | by ( Jeanna Smialek | Santul Nerkar | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

Jerome H. Powell, the chair of the Federal Reserve, reiterated on Wednesday that the central bank can take its time before cutting interest rates as inflation fades and economic growth holds up. This year is a big one for the Fed: After long months of rapid inflation, price increases are finally coming down. That means that central bankers may soon be able to lower interest rates from their highest levels in two decades. The Fed raised rates to 5.3 percent from March 2022 to mid-2023 to cool the economy and bring inflation to heel. Figuring out when and how much to cut interest rates is tricky, though.

Persons: Jerome H, Powell Organizations: Federal Reserve, Stanford, Fed

☆ Will A.I. Boost Productivity? Companies Sure Hope So.
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-01 | by ( Jordyn Holman | Jeanna Smialek | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

Rapid productivity improvement is the dream for both companies and economic policymakers. If output per hour holds steady, firms must either sacrifice profits or raise prices to pay for wage increases or investment projects. Economies experiencing productivity booms can experience rapid wage gains and quick growth without as much risk of rapid inflation. — especially generative A.I., which is still in its infancy — has spread enough to show up in productivity data already. “may” have the potential to increase productivity growth, “but probably not in the short run.” John C. Williams, president of the New York Fed, has made similar remarks, specifically citing the work of the Northwestern University economist Robert Gordon.

Persons: Jerome H, Powell, ” John C, Williams, Robert Gordon Organizations: Ben, Abercrombie, Fitch’s, Federal Reserve, New York Fed, Northwestern University

☆ A Key Inflation Gauge Hovers Above Fed’s Target
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-29 | by ( Jeanna Smialek | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

The latest reading of the Federal Reserve’s favorite inflation gauge was in line with economists’ expectations, as price increases hovered above the central bank’s target even after months of cooling. The Personal Consumption Expenditures inflation measure climbed by 2.5 percent in February compared with a year earlier, according to a report released by the Commerce Department on Friday. The Fed officially targets that measure as it tries to achieve 2 percent annual inflation, so the latest reading, while widely anticipated, is evidence that inflation still has farther to fall. The report’s details underscored that inflation continues to moderate, even if the process is bumpy. And on a monthly basis, inflation cooled slightly.

Organizations: Commerce Department, Bloomberg, Fed

☆ Fed Chair Says Central Bank Need Not ‘Hurry’ to Cut Rates
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-29 | by ( Jeanna Smialek | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

Jerome H. Powell, the chair of the Federal Reserve, said on Friday that resilient economic growth is giving the central bank the flexibility to be patient before cutting interest rates. Fed officials raised interest rates sharply from early 2022 to mid-2023, and they have left them at about 5.3 percent since last July. That relatively high level essentially taps the brakes on the economy, in part by making it expensive to borrow to buy a house or start a business. The goal is to keep rates high enough, for long enough, to wrestle inflation back under control. Given that slowdown, officials have been considering when and how much they can cut interest rates this year.

Persons: Jerome H, Powell Organizations: Federal Reserve

☆ Fed Meets Amid Worries That Inflation Progress Might Stall
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-19 | by ( Jeanna Smialek | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

Slowing America’s rapid inflation has been an unexpectedly painless process so far. That flatline is stoking questions about whether the final phase in fighting inflation could prove more difficult for the Federal Reserve. Fed officials will have a chance to respond to the latest data on Wednesday, when they conclude a two-day policy meeting. The Fed’s most recent economic estimates, released in December, suggested that Fed officials would make three quarter-point rate cuts by the end of 2024. Some economists think it’s possible that officials could dial back their rate cut expectations, projecting just two moves this year.

Organizations: Federal Reserve, Fed

☆ Email ‘Mistake’ on Inflation Data Prompts Questions on What Is Shared
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-19 | by ( Ben Casselman | Jeanna Smialek | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

One afternoon in late February, an employee at the Bureau of Labor Statistics sent an email about an obscure detail in the way the government calculates inflation — and set off an unlikely firestorm. Economists on Wall Street had spent two weeks puzzling over an unexpected jump in housing costs in the Consumer Price Index. Several had contacted the Bureau of Labor Statistics, which produces the numbers, to inquire. Now, an economist inside the bureau thought he had solved the mystery. In an email addressed to “Super Users,” the economist explained a technical change in the calculation of the housing figures.

Organizations: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Wall, of Labor Statistics, Federal Reserve

☆ Japan’s Labor Market Has a Lesson for the Fed: Women Can Surprise You
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-19 | by ( Jeanna Smialek | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

But there’s another, longer-running trend happening in the Japanese economy that could prove interesting for American policymakers: Female employment has been steadily rising. Working-age Japanese women have been joining the labor market for years, a trend that has continued strongly in recent months as a tight labor market prods companies to work to attract new employees. The jump in female participation has happened partly by design. Since about 2013, the Japanese government has tried to make both public policies and corporate culture more friendly to women in the work force. The goal was to attract a new source of talent at a time when the world’s fourth-largest economy faces an aging and shrinking labor market.

Organizations: Bank of Japan

☆ Should China Own TikTok?
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-13 | by ( David Leonhardt | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +2 min

After Hamas’s Oct. 7 terrorist attack, TikTok flooded users with videos expressing extreme positions from both sides of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, tilted toward the Palestinian side, a Wall Street Journal analysis found. On Monday, the top U.S. intelligence official released a report saying that the Chinese government had used TikTok to promote its propaganda to Americans and to influence the 2022 midterm elections. TikTok is also owned by a company, ByteDance, that’s based in a country that is America’s biggest rival for global power: China. ByteDance executives say that they operate separately from China’s government and that they regularly remove misleading content from TikTok. The most likely scenario, experts say, is that officials aligned with the Chinese government shape TikTok’s algorithm to influence what content Americans see.

Persons: Jeanna Smialek, Jim Tankersley, “, Sapna Maheshwari, China’s, Xi Jinping, Xi Organizations: Rutgers University, Rutgers, Communist Party, Soviet NBC Locations: U.S, Tibet, Hong Kong, United States, China, Soviet

☆ Insurance Costs Are Pushing Up Overall Inflation
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-12 | by ( Jeanna Smialek | More About Jeanna Smialek | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

It is costing Americans more to protect against disaster, a development that is pushing up official inflation figures. Various kinds of insurance — including car, medical and property protection — are costing more, at least as official inflation figures measure them. “Insurance of various different kinds — housing insurance, but also automobile insurance, and things like that — that’s been a significant source of inflation over the last few years,” Jerome H. Powell, the Federal Reserve chair, said during congressional testimony last week. “And it’s to do with a million different factors.”Vehicle insurance is the one adding notably to overall inflation, said Omair Sharif, founder of the research firm Inflation Insights. Part of the increase in car insurance comes from the fact that parts and replacement vehicles have become a lot more expensive over recent years, and that is slowly feeding through to insurance premiums, he said.

Persons: ” Jerome H, Powell, Omair Sharif Organizations: “ Insurance, Federal Reserve

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